The Long Ball Dominance in 2026
If you’re building a roster in today’s MLB, power is priority number one. Offense has become a blunt instrument home runs, exit velocity, and launch angle rule the day. Slugging percentages are at all time highs, and teams are stacking lineups with hitters who can change the game with one swing. It’s not finesse it’s fireworks.
The shift didn’t happen overnight, but it’s now baked into how front offices build. Player development systems are tailored to produce power hitters. Hitters are trained early to lift the ball, pull it in the air, and hunt mistakes. Scouts value strength and bat speed just as much as strike zone judgment.
Pitchers? They’re adapting, but the damage is done. Rotation depth matters less when bullpens are used like chess pieces. The numbers guys are clear home runs win games, and high slugging correlates with playoff appearances. Until that changes, teams will keep swinging hard and building lineups that look more like demolition crews than table setters.
The Case for Small Ball’s Return
After the 2023 rule changes bigger bases, limited pickoff attempts, and a pitch clock the calculus around baserunning shifted almost overnight. Stolen bases surged, not just as a stat, but as a strategy. Suddenly, taking a bag wasn’t just possible it was smart baseball. The door cracked open for a brand of play many thought belonged to VHS tapes and box scores from the ‘80s.
Teams started noticing. One run manufactured with a walk, a steal, and a bloop single started to look just as valuable as a solo home run. Especially in tight games and pitcher friendly parks. More clubs began leaning into this approach: lineups that blend power with contact, aggression tempered with discipline. The days of nine guys swinging for the fences? Those rosters are slowly being retooled.
It’s not a full throwback, but we’re seeing signs. Players who put balls in play, run the bases intelligently, and execute hit and run scenarios are gaining ground. Bunting once derided in analytics circles is showing up in key moments. Station to station baseball isn’t glamorous, but it forces opponents to defend the entire field. And in an era where everyone chases launch angles and exit velocity, that kind of pressure can break games open.
Small ball isn’t replacing power but it’s becoming a necessary counterbalance. A changeup in a league full of fastballs.
What the Numbers Are Saying
The data doesn’t lie: teams that can move runners and capitalize on key moments are quietly reshaping the box score. Run expectancy models from the past two seasons show rising value in situational execution bunts, sac flies, hit and runs. Lineups that consistently plate a runner from third with less than two outs are seeing outsized returns, even without clearing fences.
Clubs like the Guardians and Diamondbacks are leaning into this. Neither leads the league in slugging, yet both rank high in one run victories and extra bases taken. They’re pestering pitchers with pressure stretching singles into doubles, swiping bags, and grinding out at bats. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective.
Layer in park factors and we see more nuance. Hitter hostile parks like Comerica and Petco neutralize power. Teams tailored to thrive in those environments are maximizing contact, exploiting dimensions, and forcing defensive mistakes. Expanded bullpens also tilt things managers burn through hard throwers fast, opening late inning windows for the patient and the precise.
This isn’t the death of power. It’s its counterweight. And in key series, especially when weather, arms, and matchups tighten, that balance becomes a winning edge.
For more on whether analytics are fueling or fighting this movement, check out Debating the Role of Analytics in Today’s Game.
Managers Leading the Shift
It’s no longer all about launch angle and towering moonshots. A handful of managers are quietly rewriting the book, blending old school grit with new school metrics. Think hybrid ball where player versatility, situational awareness, and pressure tactics keep opponents guessing. These skippers aren’t ditching power entirely, but they’re not leaning on it like a crutch.
Managers like Skip Schumaker in Miami and Bruce Bochy in Texas are mixing in steals, squeezes, and hit and runs not just to look clever, but to win tight games when the long ball isn’t there. They’re rethinking lineups, too. That means fewer feast or famine hitters and more emphasis on bat control, plate discipline, and baserunning IQ.
Player utilization is getting sharper. Utility guys who can run hard, field three positions, and grind out at bats are becoming invaluable. It’s not flash it’s functional. Recruitment reflects that shift. Scouts are once again valuing speed, hustle, and baseball IQ alongside pop. Execution matters. Speed kills. And managers riding that wave are starting to prove you can win with more than just muscle.
Obstacles to a Full Small Ball Revival
Small ball has an image problem. Fans crave spectacle broadcasts are built around towering home runs, tape measure shots, and exit velocity leaderboards. A perfectly executed hit and run might win a game, but it won’t trend on social media. This demand for power over precision isn’t going away soon, and teams know it.
That’s why front offices still lean heavily on metrics like WAR, OPS, and you guessed it exit velocity. These numbers reward the big swing. Refined situational hitters or speedy base runners? They tend to be undervalued, despite their potential to flip a playoff series. Analytics teams haven’t fully bought into bunts and stolen bases as long term strategies. Not yet.
And here’s the elephant in the room: small ball works well in October, when every pitch is high leverage and tension runs high. But over a 162 game grind? It’s harder to sustain. Power plays consistently. Tactical baseball? It burns more fuel. Still, for a few teams bold enough to zag while the league zigs, small ball might be the edge.
Let’s not confuse underutilized with outdated. But until fans, numbers, and executives all align, small ball stays a subplot not the headline.
What to Watch in the Next Two Seasons
The next wave of talent is coming up fast and they’re built different. Across the minors, scouts and execs are putting more stock in players who can fly and field. Think center fielders with elite range, infielders who steal bags as easily as they turn double plays, catchers who control the run game. The pendulum isn’t swinging all the way back, but it’s tilting. Speed and defense now come with a premium tag in player development.
National League teams, especially those in bigger ballparks, are starting to feel the pressure. The power only model can stall out against good pitching. Clubs like the Diamondbacks and Cardinals are experimenting with mixed builds guys who can run, guys who can take the extra base, and defensive units designed to erase singles before they happen. It’s subtle, but it’s happening.
Could this be a trend or just a phase? That depends on what the league tweaks next. If the rulebook keeps favoring aggression on the basepaths, and if analytics evolve to account more accurately for disruptive speed, then the case for small ball strengthens. For now, front offices are hedging stacking systems with versatile athletes in case the equation shifts again. Power still pays, but eyes are on the other tools.